FLUG REVUE January 2003: NATO expansion opens new marktes

NATO EXPANDS INTO EASTERN EUROPE

By Volker K. Thomalla

On 21 and 22 November the heads of state of the 19 present member states of NATO met in the Czech capital Prague in order, amongst other things, to pass a resolution in favour of the expansion of the North Atlantic alliance by seven additional nations. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia were officially invited to attend the discussions. By this action, NATO has set about the biggest expansion since it came into being. For NATO, this expansion is just as much a major challenge as it is for the states which are now applying for membership. It is also a clear sign of the changed world political situation. Up to 13 years ago, East Germany and West Germany constituted the boundary between NATO and the Warsaw Pact states. Now reunited Germany lies virtually in the middle of the European NATO states.

Expansion of NATO is not simply a decision of political importance. It also has economic implications and offers the aerospace industry new sales markets and opportunities. NATO distinguishes itself as a military alliance through a high degree of standardisation. After all, the armed forces of the various nations are supposed to be able to work together. Moreover, many programmes and projects function only at a multi-national level. The best example of this is the NATO AWACS airborne surveillance aircraft stationed in Geilenkrichen, which are even manned by multi-national crews. Even if the economic situation in many of the new member states is not up to the standard of their Western allies and they are reliant on financial assistance in the early years, nevertheless it means that joint NATO tasks will fall on more shoulders than hitherto. Programmes scheduled for the mid-term such as, for example, re-engining of the AWACS fleet with modern engines, could end up costing the present NATO members less as the costs will be shared out over more countries.

As all the candidate new joiners have up to now obtained their equipment from Eastern or Russian sources, they will have to make it NATO-compatible in the near future. Even if they cannot replace their planes and helicopters with Western models, it will still have to be modified, especially in the avionics department, from NATO-compatible radio sets and IFF through to TACAN and GPS navigation equipment. Here, German industry in particular has valuable experience thanks to the takeover of the East German armed forces' MiG-29's on how to go about re-equipping aircraft to the required NATO standards, in close co-operation with manufacturer. This experience could now be used to good effect.

All those involved have no illusions that billions of euros' worth of orders will be forthcoming in the near future. The Czech Republic, for example, was planning to upgrade its fighter fleet to the Gripen, but the floods in the summer stretched the state budget so severely that the government has had to cancel the Gripen order. But quite apart from natural disasters such as that which befell the Czechs, some of the entry candidates still lack the economic strength to undertake extensive investment in re-equipping their armed forces. For this reason tenders for the modernisation of their equipment will only be successful if industrial offsets form an integral part of any deals.

The loss this entails should be viewed as strictly short-term: anyone who is generous to the indigenous industry of those countries today will be remembered in the medium- and long-term when in due course the financial situation permits the procurement of new aircraft.

From page 4 of FLUG REVUE 1/2003

Last updated 5 December 2002

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