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Home | Update | Latest Issue | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 5/97 16000 NEW AIRLINERS TO 2016 by Norbert Burgner In their most recent market forecasts, the two leading aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus Industrie are confirming their prognoses from last year. Airbus Industrie foresees a market potential of 16000 new airliners over the next 20 years in order to cope with the growing international air traffic. AI's prognosis is based on the demand for passenger and combi-aircraft with more than 70 seats for the 246 largest airlines of the world, excluding of CIS. Taking into account that approximately 2300 of these aircraft have already been ordered by airlines and leasing companies, the Airbus study reveals a market for 13500 aircraft worth $1,1 trillion. Since the market strategists from Toulouse expect that approximately 15 percent (2000 aircraft) of the market will be covered by purchases of used airliners, this leaves a true market potential for 11500 new airliners. According to the Airbus forecast, the Asian-Pacific region will develop into the dominating market of the future. The seat capacity of this region's fleet will increase from today's 25 percent up to 32 percent while an increase from 25 to 29 percent is expected for Europe. The North American market's capacity, on the other hand, will supposedly face a decrease from 38 percent today to only 28 percent. AI's market forecasters see a world wide increase in seating capacity from 1,7 million seats today up to 3,8 million seats in 2016, the operational airliner fleet increasing from 9400 to 17100. At the same time, 86 percent of today's fleet would need to be replaced due to increasing maintenance and operating costs. According to Airbus Industrie, one third of the new deliveries will be in the single-aisle category and two thirds in the large-aircraft division, the average airliner size increasing from 179 to 235 seats. Furthermore, the share of large-capacity aircraft in the fleets will increase from today's 28 percent up to 44 percent. According to the European manufacturer's analysis, the majority of the demand for the next 20 years will be in the category from 100 to 400 seats "which Airbus Industrie is covering entirely with its current product scale and the projected aircraft programs". Furthermore, the airlines have supposedly realized a need for 1440 aircraft in the category with more than 400 seats - the right to exist for the A3XX mega-liner? Market leader Boeing foresees that the world's jet airliner fleet will grow from the current 11500 aircraft up to 17000 in the year 2006. At that point, the share of single-aisle aircraft will have supposedly decreased from 73 percent to 71 percent while the medium-size category will increase from 19 to 21 percent. Furthermore, the Boeing forecasters expect that the world market share of large-capacity aircraft will decrease from the current 8,4 percent to 7,6 percent. Boeing estimates a market potential for new airliners of 7330 units over the next ten years worth $490 billion, the total number of airliners increasing up to 23600 aircraft in the decade thereafter. While the Seattle based manufacturer expects 69,1 percent of the new deliveries to be in the single-aisle category (11260 units), 23,5 percent (3720 aircraft) will be in the medium-size category and 7,4 percent (1180 aircraft) in the large-aircraft department. The entire market potential of these 16160 aircraft is estimated at around $1,1 trillion. Remarkably, while both manufacturers seem to agree on the potential sales value, the two base their calculations on different numbers of aircraft (Airbus: 13500, Boeing: 16160). It looks like Airbus is expecting more sales in the more expensive large aircraft category, which has a higher profit potential, while Boeing sees a larger potential in the intermediate and single-aisle category - an objective analysis or industrial politics? Airbus is in a position of having to lay out the basis for the future business with the A3XX project. If the company's own market research department doesn't see a potential for the mega-airliner, the decision-making boards of the four-national consortium wouldn't have the grounds to make a positive decision about the development of the 400-plus seater. Boeing on the other hand, after canceling its large-747 project, is trying to prevent the branch from getting a too positive idea about the chances for the Super Jumbo. However, whomever believes that Boeing has truly canceled its plans for the 747-500/-600, is wrong. As soon as Airbus Industrie gets the "go ahead" for the A3XX, Boeing will be in a position to react - even though Boeing head Phil Condit continues to say the opposite. Still, even Boeing can't help estimating a market potential of 1180 units in the wide-body category (747 and bigger), a number which comes close to Airbus Industrie's prognosis (1440). Boeing has always made a point in saying that the large-aircraft category begins at 500 seats upwards while AI's large-category division is based on aircraft with 400 seats upwards. Using the 400 seat limit as a common base line brings the numbers even closer together. From page 32 of FLUG REVUE 5/97 Home | Update | Latest Issue | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 5/97 Copyright 1997 by Motor-Presse Stuttgart. All rights reserved. Last updated March 30, 1997