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China flexes its muscles in space
By Volker K. Thomalla
On 11 January a satellite was destroyed by an anti-satellite missile for the first time. The Chinese armed forces shot down the Feng Yun 1C weather satellite, originally launched in 1999 but since decommissioned, with a missile fired from the Xichang Space Centre in south-west China. The intercept was first reported by American sources, as the Chinese authorities initially refused to confirm or deny the incident. Japan, Australia and the USA immediately protested both officially and through diplomatic channels. Only then did the Chinese authorities provide an explanation in which they officially announced the shootdown.
Although a treaty between the large nations under which they undertook to use space only for purely peaceful purposes does exist, it expired in 2002. Since then negotiations on a follow-on agreement have not yet produced any results. China had never signed the treaty. Both the USA and Russia have in the past developed anti-satellite missiles, but they have never tested them live against a satellite.
It was only to be expected that China would take this step one day, especially after a Chinese laser engaged and blinded an American reconnaissance satellite only last November. China wants to be recognised as a major power in space and to show that it too is one of the technologically great players in space. Moreover, one has to remember that the change in US space strategy in 2002 after the US government announced that it reserved the right to deny access to space to any state which acted against the interests of the United States was not exactly welcomed in China. On the contrary, it only strengthened China's resolve to demonstrate what it was capable of through such a test.
For this purpose it was opportune that Feng Yun 1C just happened to be orbiting the earth at an altitude of 800 kilometres, i.e. in the very altitude band in which American communications and reconnaissance satellites also operate. The shot which transformed the ageing satellite into a cloud of space debris had the effect that was intended not only in space, but also on Earth, where the alarm bells immediately started ringing. After all, an accurate Chinese anti-satellite missile constitutes a concrete threat to technologically sophisticated armed forces. Without satellite communication, navigation and reconnaissance, modern Western armies are largely blind, deaf and disoriented. In firing this missile, China has played with fire. The country may have emphasised with diplomatic skill that “it is only interested in the peaceful use of space”, but, given that shooting down satellites in space is not a peaceful purpose, this is hardly credible. Membership of the circle of states which are negotiating on the peaceful use of space will now inevitably have to be extended. Without China, such a treaty would now be pointless. But whether a quick negotiating success can be accomplished seems unlikely.
From page 4 of FLUG REVUE 3/2007
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