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A3XX GETS AIRLINE INTEREST

The launch decision for the new Super-Airbus should be taken this year. The first airlines have publicly expressed their interest in purchasing the 555-seat aircraft.

The new aircraft will not come cheap: Airbus Industrie estimates the cost of development and certification of the A3XX at $12 billion. The four-engined passenger plane will be the biggest airliner in the world and is planned to penetrate a market which up to now has been the exclusive domain of the Boeing 747, which for 30 years has been producing handsome profits for the Seattle-based US aerospace company.

The European Airbus consortium, whose members are DaimlerChrysler Aerospace (37.9%/Germany), Aerospatiale-Matra (37.9%/France), BAE Systems (20%/United Kingdom) and CASA (4.2%/Spain), sees a requirement over the next 20 years for 1200 units worth $263 billion for an airliner with more than 400 seats. On top of this there will be demand for 300 A3XX-sized cargo aircraft, worth a total of $56 billion. Airbus has set itself the objective of winning half of these orders with its A3XX. If anything like this target is achieved, the money spent on development will have proved an excellent investment.

By contrast, Boeing's market researchers believe that demand in this market segment will be significantly less and, in their view, the market does not justify development of an aircraft that is bigger than the Boeing 747-400. At the same time, Boeing has never completely given up work on a stretched version of the 747.

Although Boeing shares Airbus's view that air traffic will grow by around 5% a year, it expects a fragmentation of passenger traffic flows to occur in the future, as airlines offer more direct flights between non-major airports. This demand can in their view be adequately met by the capacity of the widebodies already available such as the Boeing 777 and 747-400.

Airbus concedes that fragmentation of air traffic is likely to occur, but believes that there will also be significant growth at the major hubs. It argues that there are cases where the Boeing 747 already today does not provide sufficient capacity on major trunk routes. Moreover the pressure on slots is growing at the major international hubs, and this would at least be relieved by aircraft like the A3XX.

In developing the A3XX, Airbus Industrie is not just relying on its own expertise. To ensure that the aircraft is correctly positioned in the market, the consortium has invited airlines of different sizes from around the world to collaborate with it on definition and development of the ultra-large aircraft. It has sought advice not only from the European carriers Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, KLM and Iberia, but also from Emirates, JAL, Korean, Malaysian, QANTAS, Singapore Airlines, United, Air Canada, All Nippon Airways, Eva Air and Cathay Pacific as well as the freight carriers FedEx, Cargolux and Atlas Air.

In the last month the first airlines have come out with a public expression of interest in a A3XX purchase. At a technical press briefing held in Toulouse at the end of May Airbus Chairman Noel Forgeard said, "I began meeting with potential customers in February and we have already made a lot of progress. In less than four months we have received letters of intent from Emirates and Singapore Airlines as well as from four customers who do not wish to have their names disclosed at present. Then there are at least two more customers waiting in the wings. I am extremely confident that we can meet the criteria set by our shareholders and will therefore receive the go-ahead as soon as possible, so that we can send out formal offers to the airlines and launch the programme before the end of the year."

Emirates Airline has announced an interest in ten A3XXs (five orders plus five options), while Singapore Airlines wishes to discuss the purchase of 16 aircraft (ten orders and six options).

With a wing span of 79.8 m and a length of 73 m, the A3XX-100 can be accommodated at those gates at major airports which were designed for a maximum aircraft wingspan of 80 m. However, modifications will be necessary to the waiting areas, as very few airports are equipped to handle 500 passengers at a single gate.

The A3XX is being designed from the outset as a family of aircraft. The provisional plans thus already envisage several derivatives of the baseline aircraft that are tailored to meet different customer requirements. The baseline model will be the A3XX-100, which will have a maximum take-off weight of 548t. It will seat 555 passengers on two decks running the full length of the aircraft in a three-class configuration. The upper deck will typically take 255 passengers and the middle deck 300. The lower deck is not intended simply for cargo and luggage, but at the request of some airlines the Airbus engineers have designed lounges, fitness rooms and other facilities aimed at improving passenger comfort during very long flights. One airline is even apparently toying with the idea of setting up a casino and a duty-free shop on the lower deck.

In many respects Airbus is implementing novel technology in the A3XX. Nevertheless, its cockpit will make it an unmistakable member of the Airbus family (see FLUG REVUE 3/2000), and Cross Crew Qualification, with its reduced training requirement, will be maintained.

The maximum payload of the A3XX-100 will be 90t, and Airbus Industrie states that its maximum range will be 7,800nm (14,445km). The candidate power plants are the Rolls-Royce Trent and a turbofan which has been developed by the Engine Alliance, a company jointly owned by Pratt & Whitney and General Electric.

The quoted price under discussion is around $216 million per aircraft. According to Airbus, this makes the procurement cost per seat 13% lower than on the Boeing 747-400, which seats 413 passenger and costs $185 million. Airlines should find the investment worthwhile once the aircraft is in service. Fuel consumption per seat is expected to be 13% less than on the Boeing 747-400, and the direct operating costs should be as much as 16% lower.

Additional members planned for the ultra-large family are a smaller A3XX-50R variant with 480 seats and a range of 8,750nm (16,205km), an A3XX-100R also with a range of 8,750nm, and an A3XX-200 with 656 seats and a range of 7,650nm (14,167km). In a single-class layout, for example for the high-density Japanese domestic market, this huge airliner can take 1000 passengers.

The passenger and combi models will be supplemented by a freighter version, the A3XX-100F, which will be able to carry a 150t payload over 5,620nm (10,408km). The demand for such a large freighter is greater than was at first assumed. According to John Leahy, Senior Vice President Commercial at Airbus Industrie, the freighter could be up and flying just two years after the A3XX-100 if the demand is translated into orders.

When it comes to transporting A3XX components between the various Airbus factories, the dimensions of the A3XX will necessitate other technological innovations. As the wings will not fit into the A300-600 ST Belugas which are currently used to transport parts between sites, studies, including wind tunnel tests, are under way to see if the assembled wings can be flown piggyback on an A300 for final assembly.

On the question of where the prestigious final assembly work takes place, Airbus Industrie and its consortium members have not yet made any announcements, although it is already apparent that there are only two sites in the running, Hamburg and Toulouse. Splitting the final assembly work into assembly and fitting out of the interior seems to be a practical solution. One disadvantage of splitting the final assembly work between two locations is that the cost-intensive engines would have to be mounted very early so as to permit the "green" aircraft to be flown to the site where its interior will be fitted. As the engines are the most expensive subsystems of the aircraft, this would increase production costs by tying up capital.

The year 2000 is a critical year for the A3XX programme. Around the middle of the year the Airbus Executive Board should receive the go-ahead from the Supervisory Board to enter into formal sales negotiations with the airlines. During the next six months the first customers should then convert their letters of intent into firm purchase contracts. If enough orders have been received, Airbus will launch the programme officially. This should happen by the end of 2000. By the end of 2001 the definition phase should be complete so that the first flight of the A3XX can take place in the summer of 2004. If everything goes according to plan, the first A3XX will enter service with an airline in October 2005. John Leahy, Senior Vice President Commercial at Airbus, is convinced that the A3XX family will be a success. As he put it, "The Boeing 747 was the flagship of air transport in the 20th century. The A3XX will be the flagship of air transport in the 21st century!"

From page 22 of FLUG REVUE 7/2000