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MARKET SURVEY OF MILITARY TRANSPORTS

By Karl Schwarz

$40 billion will be shelled out by the air forces of the world this decade on 870 new military transports. At least, that is the view of the American market research company, Forecast International, in their latest analysis. Even if some of the detailed assumptions in their study can be disputed, no one would deny that the requirement for military transports has probably never been as great as it is today.

The Cold War may be dead and buried, but the world has not become any more peaceful. On the contrary, regional conflicts, natural disasters and the recent declaration of war on terrorism by the United States have all brought out only too clearly the lack of mobility, especially on the part of the European armed forces. But even in the USA the Mobility Requirements Study 2005 detected a gap.

According to the report, 77.7 million tonne-kilometres per day could be handled with 120 Boeing C-17's, the C-5 fleet and the available civilian types, whereas the capacity needed is up to 87.7 million tonne-kilometres. How exactly this gap should be closed is left open in the study. In the tables provided, however, various alternatives of further purchases of the C-17 and modernisation of the C-5 Galaxy are presented.

Antonov An-70 in tests

125 Galaxies are still in service with the US armed forces, but availability, at 65%, is increasingly causing concern. Thus, after almost a year's delay, on 5 December an order worth $1.1 billion for the development phase of the Reliability Enhancement and Re-engining Program (RERP) was placed with Lockheed Martin. As the name suggests, the primary issues here are to increase reliability and install new engines. The chosen General Electric CF6-80C2, as used in various commercial aircraft, produces 50,000lb (222.2kN) of thrust and is said to have excellent reliability and durability. As the C-5 is to fly until at least 2040, some structural parts are monitored during depot level maintenance and repaired if required.

Some preliminary work was completed in the last two years, and the RERP development programme is now set to run for seven years. Four C-5's will be used for tests. The first flight is planned for the autumn of 2005, and, assuming that the next stage then gets the go-ahead, serial retrofitting of the USAF could commence at the start of 2007. Each of the C-5B's is likely to cost $55 million.

Whether the C-5A's will also be upgraded remains to be seen. However, all the Galaxies are to receive an advanced flight control and navigation system plus new cockpit displays as part of a $460 million avionics modernisation programme that was begun in 1999. The prototype should fly after a nine-month delay in the summer.

The Galaxy with its outstanding transport capacity will remain a cornerstone of Air Mobility Command. As well as this, it is hoped that the C-17 fleet will be expanded beyond the 120 aircraft that have been ordered to date. Evidently Boeing has submitted various proposals in the last few months. It is believed that if an order were placed for 60 aircraft, the unit price would drop to $152 million. With 100 aircraft, unit price could be as low as $142 million.

The 80th Globemaster III was delivered on 17 December. The USAF is not the only air force to use the C-17, but the Royal Air Force also operates four C-17s. They were handed over to 99 Squadron in Brize Norton commencing in May 2001, and experienced their first "real" missions on 18 August when they were flown to Skopje. The seven year lease of the transporters is expected to cost the RAF no less than #750 million (Euro 1.17 billion).

However one looks at it, the C-17 is thus an enormously expensive aircraft which hardly any country outside the USA can afford. And many countries do not actually need an aircraft of this class. In fact, it is the turboprop C-130 Hercules that has proved so invaluable over the last few decades as a universal workhorse. Lockheed Martin was planning to pick up on this success by bringing out a major upgrade, the J version.

However, sales of the aircraft have been only sluggish, not least as a result of the numerous teething problems that the aircraft has had. For example, only since September 2001 have aircraft being delivered with software version 5.3, which is needed for full functionality of the avionics. Thus the Royal Australian Air Force only accepted its C-130J's as being in the contractually promised configuration and formally put them in service on 11 December. 84 new Hercules have been delivered to date, but the order backlog of 27 aircraft is only sufficient to keep the production line rolling for another two years.

There is little prospect of a sudden boom, as even the US armed forces are dragging their feet when it comes to placing orders. Instead they are investing up to $3.9 billion in the C-130 Avionics Modernisation Program (AMP) for up to 519 C-130E and H. The upgrade kits, which include a glass cockpit displays, are being developed by Boeing.

As well as the C-130J, another transport programme in which Lockheed is also involved is struggling somewhat. The Alenia built C-27J Spartan was certified for military operations on 20 December, but there is still no sign of the long promised order from the government in Rome. Civil certification was achieved back in June 2001. Three aircraft completed a total of 445 flights comprising 793 flying hours. Testing covered operations from unprepared airfields, low-level flight and parachute drops.

But the Spartan's good tactical features have not yet won it any export successes. Instead, the rival C-295 from EADS CASA snapped up the orders in Switzerland (which selected the C-295 in December 2000 but has failed to finalise a contract since then), and in Poland. The agreement with Warsaw was signed on 28 August 2001. It provides for eight aircraft at a cost of $212 million, with deliveries commencing in 2003. However, EADS CASA "paid for" the order with a commitment to purchase a majority stake in the Polish aircraft manufacturer, PZL-Okecie, which is presently being privatised.

Other customers for the C-295, a derivative of the CN-235, are the United Arab Emirates (four aircraft selected for the maritime patrol role) and of course Spain itself. The 35th Transport Squadron took delivery of its first nine C-295's on 15 November.

Although the USA and Europe currently dominate the transporter market with their offerings, one should not forget Russia and the Ukraine. Types like the An-124 and recently even the An-225, the biggest aircraft in the world, are always in demand from the military at times like the Afghanistan war and the subsequent emergency and humanitarian missions. However, only single units are being produced for civilian use.

Production of the Ilyushin Il-76 at TAPO in Tashkent, Uzbekistan has virtually come to a standstill. An Il-76MF stretched by 6.6 m, with more powerful and more fuel efficient PS-90A engines, has been flying since August 1995 but has not yet succeeded in winning any customers.

Kiev-based Antonov in the Ukraine, is also having problems with its An-70. This type, which is directly comparable to the A400M, was also offered to Germany and other NATO partners but has not succeeded in getting a look-in. Now hopes are pinned on the armed forces of Russia and the Ukraine. However, government decrees providing for the purchase of 164 and 65 aircraft, respectively, cannot be relied on to actually materialise.

Still, the prototype which crash landed near Omsk in January 2001 was returned to Kiev on 5 June and the test programme was subsequently resumed. Between 10 October and 26 November trials were carried out at setting down parachutists and heavy loads. In the course of 21 flights the An-70 air dropped among other things BMD-1 tanks and pallets containing loads of up to nine tonnes.

From page 54 of FLUG REVUE 3/2002