FLUG REVUE April 2003: Heli-Expo 2003 brought optimism

HELI-EXPO IN DALLAS SEES OPTIMISM

By Karl Schwarz

Over 1,000 visitors (10%) more than at last year's event in Orlando and some 50 announced orders – Dallas proved to be a very good venue for Heli-Expo 2003. Even the traditional forecast from Rolls-Royce (in collaboration with the Teal Group) was encouraging. According to this, sales of turbine helicopters will be relatively stable over the next ten years, with a slight increase in deliveries from around 480 to 530 aircraft per year.

Surprisingly, the collapse that everyone had expected in 2002 turned out to be not nearly as bad as was feared. The recession-induced decline in purchases in the private sector and of business helicopters was offset by growth in emergency services and police. "Homeland security” is the big buzzword in the USA, and here the manufacturers are hopeful of good business at least in the medium term. When it comes to supplying oil rigs, which these days are ever further out from the coast, there are rich pickings to be had. Then there is the inescapable fact that the average age of the turbine fleet is now 27 years so that at some point they will have to be replaced.

Such forecasts naturally depend on stable economic and political underlying conditions. A war with Iraq, an oil price explosion and continuing sluggishness in the economy could rapidly consign them to the archives. Roy Resavage, President of Helicopter Association International, drew attention to another serious problem: since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 insurance premiums have risen considerably, at least in the USA. Here, he feels, the basic problem of high compensation payments needs to be tackled. Again, free access to airspace is anything but guaranteed, as recent restrictions over Washington DC have shown.

The entire sector must therefore live with uncertain prospects. No wonder many manufacturers are finding it hard to make product decisions. At any rate John Murphey, Chairman and CEO of Bell, explained that the JRX concept for a new light helicopter had not met with enough interest. Further research into customer requirements and investment in new technology were therefore necessary. "If we are going to invest 300 to 500 million dollars, we must be spot on at the first attempt,” said Murphey. Bell's endeavours, he said, were aimed at models with high-speed, more payload, lower operating costs and acceptable purchase prices resulting from efficient production. However, such a helicopter is unlikely to emerge from Bell before 2006.

For the moment everyone in Fort Worth has their hands full sorting out the V-22 Osprey and AH-1Z/UH-1Y military programmes. Even so, the maiden flight of the civil BA609 tiltrotor is now scheduled for 17 April. 32 hours of ground runs and the first taxi trials up to 50kt (93km/h) in Arlington, Texas had been successfully completed as of the end of January. As development work is just ticking over, certification will now not take place before 2007.

On the other hand the AB139, another joint programme with AgustaWestland, is further advanced. A helicopter is currently undergoing tests at Honeywell Avionics in the USA. The company is hoping to achieve Italian certification in the middle of the year. Orders for around 80 helicopters have already been received, including selection for the US Coast Guard's Deepwater Programme.

Bell was unhappy with its sales figures for last year, unlike Eurocopter, which extended its dominance in the civil market. For the first time the company brought an EC 145 to Heli-Expo for customer flights – this will be the last new product for some years, as the priority now is to satisfy parent company EADS's demands for higher profit margins. There is also some catch-up work to be done in improving customer satisfaction. Once again Eurocopter has been rated as below average in surveys of customer service.

Some local annoyance was generated by the announcement that the American Eurocopter factory in Grand Prairie near Dallas would not be expanded. Instead, attractive business promotion programmes in Mississippi are to be taken advantage of to set up a new final assembly line in Columbus for the popular AS 350 series by the end of 2003.

AgustaWestland is also hoping to increase its US sales and is looking for partners for the military EH101 (alias US101). In the civil sector, sales of the large, single-engined Koala have apparently improved. A prestigious order for four A119's by the New York City Police Department was announced at Heli-Expo, to add to the two machines ordered by the Pennsylvania police force in December.

With so much European success in their own country, some US manufacturers are calling for state support and a "Buy American” stance. Besides, the research budget of NASA, which has been decimated in recent years, needs a hefty boost. In actual fact, for example, Sikorsky has been languishing pitifully on the civil market for some time with its only product, the S-76. However, a major order for fifteen S-76C+ helicopters worth $100 million is giving a fresh impetus to the programme. Offshore Logistics plans to replace its fleet over five years and has even taken out 24 options. 30 to 40 percent higher productivity is making this purchase attractive, according to CEO Dru Milke.

Sikorsky now has the first firm orders for its large S-92, which was certificated in mid-December. Norsk Helicopters signed up at the show for two helicopters for use in the North Sea (contracts with Statoil), and Cougar Helicopters for three. Other negotiations are in full swing to convert options to firm contracts. Sikorsky's Marketing Vice President Jeff Pino is therefore confident that that he will soon have sold the first year's production (with first deliveries at the beginning of 2004).

Sikorsky S-92

Enstrom Helicopter is also apparently set to enjoy a revival. New management took control of the long neglected company last summer. Overdue internal modernisation measures and aggressive marketing are expected to catapult sales from the single digits to 30 helicopters per year and to bring in a profit. "Our 280FX and 480B are attractive products, they just need to be marketed right,” said President Steve Daniels. Minor technical improvements such as elastomer dampers are under development.

For MD Helicopters 2002 was a disaster, with only 15 helicopter deliveries to show for it. Its big problem has been that equipping the Explorers bound for police customers in Baden-Württemberg and the Netherlands has required enormous development effort, and this has led to considerable delays. However, it was expecting to receive the necessary FAA certification shortly after Heli-Expo, so prospects for 2003 are now looking a lot rosier. MD Helicopters' parent company, RDM Holdings in Holland, which has pumped "a load of” money into the company, has had to meet the unforeseen costs. But in the long-term they are optimistic, according to Joep van den Niewenhuyzen.

Frank Robinson, who in 2002 had to contend with a significant decline in business (255 deliveries instead of 328) is also optimistic about the future. The new, more powerful four-seater Raven II, which was certificated in the autumn, has generated renewed interest, so that production in Torrance, California is to be stepped up. As usual, Robinson was not prepared to pin himself down as regards the next new development; however he does not rule out a turbine model this time.

Schweizer, which has maintained its position in the training market with the 300 CBi, has also done well. More orders have recently come in for the hitherto disappointing 333 turbine model. Other highlights of Heli-Expo included announcement of the start of production under licence in Shanghai, China by Sikorsky and possible follow-up orders for the Fire Scout unmanned air vehicle developed by Northrop Grumman, which is based on the airframe of the 333 model.

As well as helicopter manufacturers, Heli-Expo has also traditionally been attended by all the relevant suppliers, from engine producers through to avionics manufacturers, maintenance enterprises and insurance companies. In virtually all these areas there are specialist companies. Thus, for example, Carson Helicopters of Perkasie, Pennsylvania, has developed new main rotor blades out of composite materials for the S-61. With their assistance, this long-established platform can now carry 900kg more payload and has 15kt (28 km/h) more speed. Certification was granted on 17 January, opening the way for orders for the $1.1 million modification.

From page 30 of FLUG REVUE 4/2003

Last updated 4 March 2003

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