FLUG REVUE September 2005: Future of Space Shuttle remains unclear

September 2005

SHUTTLE: THE BEGINNING OF THE END?

By Volker K. Thomalla

The first launch of an American shuttle after a break of over two years should have been a triumph for NASA. America would be able once more to send manned missions into space under its own control, something that is not possible without the space shuttle. Since the Columbia crash in February 2003, the International Space Station (ISS) has been supplied solely using Russian transport capacity.

However, the plan to pull off a picture book launch went awry. First of all a fuel sensor stubbornly refused to cooperate so that the launch date had to be postponed, then parts of the insulation on the external tank once again fell off during the launch of mission STS-114. NASA Administrator Michael Griffin was quick to draw the obvious conclusions, saying, “We will investigate this event extremely carefully, as we do all unexpected events, and we shall make all the necessary changes to the shuttle before we proceed with another launch. This is a test flight. Amongst other things, we are testing on this flight the integrity of the foam insulation and a new camera installation designed to detect any problems. The cameras worked well. Unfortunately the foam did not.”

One does not need to be a fortune teller to predict that this statement will result in further, significant delays. The space shuttle has mutated from the showpiece project to the problem child. It is only logical and right that Griffin should restrict the flights so as to keep the risk as low as possible.

But this attitude has a downside which also has to be accepted: without the shuttles, it will be impossible to complete the construction of the ISS as planned. The shuttle has a big payload and is currently the only launch vehicle capable of transporting the next few modules to be added to the space station. Even supplying a larger ISS crew will be difficult, if not impossible, without the shuttle. The repercussions will be felt in Europe as well. The Columbus module is ready for launch, but without the shuttle it has no way of getting into space. German astronaut Thomas Reiter was to have set off for the ISS in the Atlantis orbiter on 9 September and to have stayed there for about six months. In the light of Griffin's announcement, it is highly likely that this date will have to be postponed. And the fate of the Hubble space telescope also now seems to be sealed, as a repair mission for Hubble would have required an extra shuttle flight.

If the shuttles – which, according to President George W. Bush's plans were only supposed to continue flying until 2010 – are now sent into early retirement, the International Space Station will by and large have failed. Public pressure on the US government and NASA will now continue to rise. For the American people it is unthinkable that NASA should be unable to send astronauts into space when Russian cosmonauts and, in the foreseeable future, Chinese taikonauts will be flying regularly into space. It is highly probable that the USA will now push energetically ahead with a shuttle replacement to ensure that it is operational sooner than the previously planned date of 2014.

From page 4 of FLUG REVUE 9/2005

Last updated 18 August 2005

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