FLUG REVUE January 2006: NBAA Convention shows good business trends

January 2006

NBAA CONVENTION SEES GOOD BUSINESS

By Volker K. Thomalla

Organising this year's Annual Meeting & Convention was no mean feat for the National Business Aviation Association: following the devastation which hurricane Katrina had wreaked on New Orleans, it was forced to find an alternative venue in the shortest possible time. It accomplished this task quite unperturbed and organised a record trade fair. 1,142 exhibitors attracted 28,200 visitors into the Convention Center in Orlando. The static display featured 110 aircraft.

The forecasts for the next few years are very encouraging. In its annual market forecast, Rolls-Royce is predicting growth, especially in the upper end of Business Aviation. However, the expected growth in the jet fleet is in part due to new markets. Thus, for example, Rolls-Royce predicts big market opportunities for the manufacturers in India, Russia and China. In these three countries alone it sees a sales potential of 500 to 700 jets over the next 10 years. All in all, Rolls-Royce expects 15,000 new business jets to be delivered over the next 20 years – and this figure does not even include the expected 7,500 mini-jets like the Eclipse 500 and the Diamond D-Jet. With prospects like this, it is hardly surprising that visitors and exhibitors alike were in an extremely positive mood. A number of new aircraft and projects made the trip to Orlando well worthwhile.

At the 2004 Convention, Aerion Corporation of Reno, Nevada, had created quite a stir with its project to develop a supersonic business jet. This year the company demonstrated in Orlando that it is very serious about this project, which should not be viewed as a flash in the pan. The Aerion supersonic jet will be able to fly at supersonic speeds of up to Mach 1.6 over water and uninhabited land, whereas over inhabited land it will fly at a speed just below the sound barrier. With such a flight profile, the projected travel time between New York and Paris will drop from seven and a half hours to four hours and 15 minutes. “We have made a lot of progress,” reported Aerion Vice Chairman Brian Barents in Orlando. “The technical feasibility of the project has been confirmed through wind tunnel tests and computer analyses. To power the supersonic jet, the designers have chosen the Pratt & Whitney JT8D-219 engine, which has a take-off thrust of 87.2kN (19,600lb). The JT8D will not require any afterburner to accelerate the aircraft. The projected range, according to Aerion, will be “over 4000nm (7,408km)”.

Compared with the design unveiled last year (see FLUG REVUE 12/2004), a number of changes have been made to the Aerion jet. The twin-engined aircraft will now have a cruciform tail configuration. The shape of the wing has also changed and its surface has been reduced. This has made it necessary to alter the strake on the fuselage-wing joint. The wingspan is now 19.6m and the length 41.30m On top of this, Aerion has decided to equip the jet with a fly-by-wire system. According to Brian Barents, phase one of development is now complete. The project has thus advanced to the stage where it can be presented to potential partners, and discussions are under way with several candidates. Aerion Corporation does not want to build the aircraft alone, but is relying on an international consortium, which has still to be founded. The aircraft could be certificated within five years of programme launch. A market study conducted by Aerion suggests that just in the first ten years of production, 250 to 300 supersonic business jets could be built.

Dassault Aviation of France has not laid the subject of supersonic flight to rest either. It has a team working on this, but at present there is no suitable powerplant for a supersonic business jet in sight, according to Dassault Aviation Chairman and CEO Charles Edelstenne. Amongst other aircraft, Dassault brought the third Falcon 7X with it to Orlando, where Edelstenne announced that the new Falcon's range will be over 6,000nm (11,112 km) rather than the 5,700nm (10,556km) previously announced. The final range is at present being calculated. Amongst other activities, the company is currently testing winglets on Falcon 7X number 1. As of the start of the Convention, the 7X test fleet had completed nearly 100 flights and over 300 flying hours. In parallel to the evaluation and certification tests, production of the new three-engined aircraft is ramping up. The first 30 Falcon 7X's are in various stages of construction, and from 2007 the production rate will be three 7X per month. According to Jean Rosanvallon, President of Dassault Falcon, who succeeded in selling another Falcon 7X during the Convention, Dassault is hoping to have 70 firm orders for the 7X under its belt by the end of the year.

All in all, business is good as far as Dassault's business jets are concerned. In the first half of the year alone the French manufacturer received over 60 firm orders. Its best-selling aircraft was the twin-jet Falcon 2000EX EASy. As Charles Edelstenne pointed out, “As far as sales are concerned, 2005 will be the best year in the history of the Falcon programme.” At the same time he also unveiled a new jet, the Falcon 2000DX, which from 2007 will replace the basic Falcon 2000 version in Dassault's portfolio. The world-wide Falcon fleet has meanwhile expanded to 1,715 aircraft and the new types will ensure that these figures continue to climb.

Gulfstream also brought a new type to the Convention. The manufacturer, which is part of the General Dynamics group of companies, caused surprise by presenting the midsize Gulfstream G150 jet as a certificated aircraft. Certification had not been expected until the end of the year. The twin-engined jet built by Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) in Israel was not only certificated ten weeks earlier than expected, but the programme also cost less than anticipated, as Gulfstream President Bryan Moss announced not without pride at the Convention. Performance is another area in which the G150 has exceeded predictions: its 2,950nm (5,463km) range is 10 percent higher than the guaranteed range, whereas its required take-off distance is 10 percent less than predicted, at 1600m.

Moss is pleased with sales in 2005. Gulfstream's orderbook will ensure that its factories are fully utilised over the next 24 months.

Canadian-American conglomerate Bombardier also introduced some new aircraft types. On the evening before the opening day, the manufacturer gave the official green light for the launch of the successor to the Challenger 604 and presented a cabin mock-up. The new type, which has been named the Challenger 605, has a number of novel features. Externally, its new shape and the positioning of the windows are particularly striking. The cabin windows of the 605 are higher and bigger than on the 604. This means that more natural light enters the cabin, creating the impression of more space. Bombardier has completely redesigned the interior, so that the cabin is even bigger. By moving some of the lines from the ceiling to the sides, it has been able to increase the head room in the cabin still further. LED cabin lighting with a longer service life and lower energy consumption will cut maintenance costs.

One major change is the avionics equipment in the cockpit. Here, Rockwell Collins will be supplying the Pro Line 21 avionics suite, which presents the pilots with all the flight-relevant data and all the system data that they want on four 24cm x 30.5cm screens. The standard configuration of the 605 includes the Integrated Flight Information System (IFIS) from Rockwell Collins, which enables the crew to access electronic maps and thus forego the use of paper maps. When taken together, the changes reduce the empty weight of the new aircraft by 91kg, which the customer can convert into either more payload or extra range. With one extra passenger on board, the 605 flies the same distance as the 604. Bombardier is aiming for a maiden flight in the first quarter of 2006, with certification by the Canadian aviation authority, Transport Canada, in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Flight testing of the new Learjet 60 XR is also set to commence in the first quarter of 2006, so Bombardier announced at the NBAA Convention. The 60 XR is the eighth new type to have been developed since 1990, when Learjet was taken over by Bombardier. As with the Challenger 605, Bombardier plans once again to furnish the 60 XR cockpit with the Pro Line 21 avionics suite from Rockwell Collins, although on this aircraft the four screens will be smaller. Compared with the present Learjet 60, however, the screen area has increased significantly: the four 20.3cm x 25.4cm displays are 75 percent bigger than those currently used.

Cessna Chairman, President and CEO Jack Pelton was very pleased. He said, “2005 is a year that we can be proud of. This year we are back at the level we were at before 2001. Our order backlog has risen to $6 billion and in 2006 we will deliver about 290 new Citations, compared with 240 to 245 in 2005. The Citation X is sold out for 2006 and the next available delivery slot for the Citation Sovereign is not until 2007. We will continue to invest and to pursue our strategic path.”

Together with Roger Whyte, Cessna's Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Pelton presented three new types in Orlando. The Citation CJ1+ and CJ2+ were making their first appearances at an air show since achieving certification, while the Citation Encore+ was announced. This will replace the Citation Encore predecessor model and should be ready for delivery in 2007. The Encore+ is equipped with Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System (EGPWS), Terrain Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) and Full Authority Digital Engine Controls (FADEC) as standard. Cessna too has chosen the Pro Line 21 avionics suite from Rockwell Collins, whose allure includes near real-time graphic weather representation and digital maps. As an introductory price, Cessna was offering the twin-jet at the NBAA Convention for $7,995,000. The company aims to have the Encore+ certificated in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Raytheon Aircraft had almost its entire product portfolio on display at the Convention. Once again there were several new items. The Super Midsize Jet Hawker Horizon has been renamed and is now known as the Hawker 4000. Raytheon was expecting final certification by the end of 2005. Another aircraft making its debut was the Hawker 850, an upgraded version of the successful Hawker 800XP. The new twin has winglets, which should slightly improve its performance.

Whereas ten or twelve years ago, airliners converted to VIP aircraft were very much the exception, today this is nothing unusual. Boeing Business Jets announced in Orlando that this year it has passed the threshold of 100 BBJ sales. According to BBJ President, Steven Hill, the company has 102 firm orders. 88 aircraft have been delivered since the programme launch in 1996 and 83 are in service. The remaining five aircraft are currently being fitted with their internal cabin furnishings at completion centres. As of 8 November 2005, the BBJ fleet had notched up over 168,000 flying hours on 66,250 flights. Its departure reliability was 99.9 percent. BBJ is thinking about offering other Boeing airliners as VIP aircraft. Thus, for example, according to Hill, there have been several serious enquiries about a VIP version of the 787-8. However, potential customers will have to be patient, as the first 787 delivery slot that might be available for a VIP aircraft is not until the end of 2010 or beginning of 2011.

Airbus has received only about half the orders Boeing has won for the BBJ with its Airbus Corporate Jetliner (ACJ). “2005 was a good year for Airbus,” said Richard Gaona, Airbus Vice President for Executive and Private Aviation, who unveiled a new member of the Airbus business jet family in Orlando, the A318 Elite. The idea behind the A318 Elite, he said, was to offer a cheaper aircraft. These aircraft are exclusively fitted by Lufthansa Technik in Hamburg, which is offering two basic layouts for the cabin. These can be tailored to the individual taste of the purchaser through a number of options. Compared with the airline version of the smallest Airbus, the A318 Elite will be supplied as standard with on-board steps so as to enable access at airfields that are not equipped with gates or appropriate ground equipment.

With eight passengers on board, the A318 will be in a position to fly a distance of 3,800nm (7,037km) non-stop. The A318 is certificated for CAT IIIb landings, and as an additional aid for landings in marginal weather conditions, Airbus is offering a head-up display from Thales for the A318 Elite.

Comlux AG of Zurich will be the launch customer for the A318 Elite. Its President and CEO, Ettore Rodaro, signed up for three aircraft of this type in Orlando and reserved delivery slots for a further three options. Comlux AG – its name comes from the words comfort and luxury – will take delivery of its first A318 Elite in the spring of 2007.

Lufthansa Technik has established itself as a firm fixture in the Business Aviation sector and was also viewed as such at the NBAA Convention. The maintenance and equipment specialist's Convention appearance will have likely paid off, as several important contracts were signed or announced in Orlando. Amongst other things, ExecuJet Aviation Group now has a participation in Lufthansa Bombardier Aviation Services in Berlin. Lufthansa Technik also signed a contract for the interior furnishing of up to 17 Challenger 850's over the next three years in Orlando. The company stressed the importance of the NBAA Convention by unveiling a concept for the interior furnishing of both decks of an A380 used as a VVIP aircraft.

From FLUG REVUE 1/2006

Last updated 9 December 2005

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